Opinion by: Sasha Shilina, PhD, founder of Episteme and researcher at Paradigm Research Institute
Decentralized prediction markets are gaining ground in the scientific world, offering an intriguing answer to the field’s ongoing reproducibility crisis. While a notable share of research findings fail to replicate in independent tests, supporters believe market-driven forecasting can speed up identifying robust studies.
Detractors remain cautious, worried that introducing financial wagers could compromise the measured, peer-reviewed process that has guided academic inquiry for centuries. The debate hinges on whether blockchain-based forecasting will elevate or destabilize scientific credibility.
Crowdsourcing predictions
Despite these concerns, recent developments point toward real promise. Platforms like Polymarket and Pump.science have shown that crowdsourcing predictions can help refine collective judgment in fields as varied as politics and longevity. This model is being adapted for science, where it could quickly flag dubious claims and reward reproducible ones.
